Background on the current political crisis in Ecuador

Disclaimer: I apologize for not having time to proof read this before posting.

A number of you have reached out to me and asked for some context in English on what is happening in Ecuador at the moment. Truth be told, this is a difficult task: Ecuador’s history of instability goes way back. There is, however, something different about what’s happening right now, and I’ll try to do my best to articulate what is going on.

For the sake of clarification, I must point out that I no longer live in Ecuador, and I stopped writing about politics in Ecuador, either professionally/personally, over two years ago. I do, however, continue to follow events there passionately: my and Michelle’s family is there, my friends are there, we own property there, and truth be told, as sentimental as it sounds, my heart is still there.

This morning Ecuador woke up to discover that the national police force had gone on strike. Not only had they gone on strike, they were rioting in the streets. Along with limited elements of the armed forces they took over and closed down the national airport, along with several other government installations throughout the country. Access to the three main cities, Quito, Guayaquil and Cuenca, was cut off. Transportation in the city stopped. Organized criminal elements, reacting quickly to the news, robbed at least three banks that I am aware of, including one which is 5 minutes from where Michelle’s grandparents live.

The primary motive for the strike was a new law, passed by congress but yet to be written into law, which changed their compensation structure, including limiting bonuses and promotions. I personally have not read the law, but there appears to be some debate as to whether or not the changes will ultimately benefit or hurt the average police officer. Regardless, the law also affects the military and some public servants, although for the most part these protests are primarily driven by the country’s 40,000 member police force. One police commander was stating, “if the country wants to cut our benefits, let’s see how well off they are without us.”

Generally your average Ecuadorian is always up for a good old fashioned protest. As evidence I need only point to the fact that the past three democratically elected presidents were overthrown by popular protests. Few, however, would openly admit to supporting the police with the exception of short-sighted die-hard partisans (of which there are many) who feel the ends justifies the means. I’ll get into that in a bit. The fact is that the police are held in quite low regard by most Ecuadorians. Corruption in the police force is as much a part of Ecuador as the volcanoes that dot the small country’s topography. Most traffic infractions, either alleged or real, are resolved on the spot through bribes. For those whose moral compass would prevent them from offering such a bribe, the threat of getting lost in the criminal justice system, equally as incompetent as the police force, immediately erases all righteousness. Every Ecuadorian has a story of a family member who, after being involved in some major or minor traffic accident (as either victim or perpetrator) spent weeks in jail as their case worked its way through the courts. Lastly, police officers tend to come from the lower dark-skinned classes, which in a country as classist and racist as Ecuador means that contempt is merely magnified. In other words, while many would support ousting Rafael Correa from office, few would openly sympathizes with the clearly under-paid and over-worked police force.

So how did we get to this point? Much of the current unrest is a manifestation of the division Rafeal Correa surfaces in Ecuador. If there is one thing his detractors and supporters would agree on it is that Correa polarizes: those who love him claim that he’s the first real leftist President to govern since Jaime Roldos, who died in 1981 a plane accident after only two years in office. Those who hate him will gladly spit venomous rants that refer to him as a dictator, a communist, a hater of the middle class, etc.

The fact is that, at least electorally, Rafael Correa is the most successful President in the history of modern Ecuador. Not only has he won half a dozen elections, he’s the first President since the restoration of democracy to win an election without a run-off vote. Furthermore, his initiatives have received widespread popular support: his initiative to re-write the constitution won over 80% of the popular vote; once the new constitution was written, it was supported by more than 2/3rds of the population. During those times I worked as an advisor to the European Union’s Electoral Observation group: despite concerns about the use of state resources in campaigns, we found the elections to be free and fair. Despite the hate he elicits in some, the vast majority of Ecuadorians have supported Correa throughout the 4 years he has governed. Most importantly, the Ecuadorian congress has traditionally been divided with parties representing different regional interests. Correa’s party was the first in a long time that won support in both the highlands, the coastal region, and the amazon.

Why do people hate him? The truth is that Correa divides both because of his politics and his personality. First, let’s tackle his personality: Rafael Correa is a mean and stubborn son of a bitch who governs with the righteousness and self-confidence of a 15th century crusader. Even his most fervent supports would probably admit he’s not the type of guy you’d want to be married to. Unlike many politicians who attempt to mask their faults in their public personality, Rafael embraces and celebrates his bull-headed style. He makes up his mind quickly and he rarely changes it. As a quick-talking costenio with a PhD in economics from the University of Illinois in Champaign, Rafael Correa has both the smarts and the style to talk loops around most people. Furthermore, his entire political strategy is based on intimidating his opponents into keeping thier mouths shut. For those who don’t speak Spanish you’ll regret not seeing him in sit-down interviews where he often tears apart reporters by questioning their assumptions and throwing statistics at them faster than an M16. His message: don’t ask me a tough question unless you’ve really done your homework.

The second part of Correa’s personality is his complete lack of self-doubt and his belief that if any group opposes him he’ll simply call an election and defeat them through the ballot box. Most likely as a result of shortened tenures of his predecessors, Rafael Correa has decided that he will govern by his own whim and will compromise with no-one. Though he entered politics on the wings of a grand coalition of leftist parties and movements, he quickly lost their support and they became his opponents. Most of the original founders of his political party have abandoned him after daring to question his judgement. Indeed, Correa, himself a former finance minister, disposes of a new finance minister every six months. Yesterday his own party, which holds a majority in congress, moved to veto a law he proposed and he threatened to invoke his constitutional right to dismiss congress and call new congressional and presidential elections. If the congressmen don’t like his laws, he reckoned, he’ll get new congressmen. All in all, Rafael Correa governs as if each and every day is his last, stopping at nothing and compromising with no-one to see his agenda come to fruition.

As mentioned earlier, Correa not only polarizes with his personality but also with his politics. Despite living in a middle-class neighbourhood himself, teaching at Ecuador’s foremost private institution and sending his kids to an expensive private school, Rafeal Correa has come to symbolize the enemy of the self-described middle-class, which for all intents and purposes is actually the upper class (although this point is debatable, I insist that Ecuador doesn’t really have a middle class. The people who I’m referring to here are generally people who send their kids to private schools and go to Miami at least once a year for vacation). Rafeal Correa clearly considers himself a defender of the poor, cut from the Catholic liberation theology cloth. He rails against ‘pelucones’ who in his mind represent the richest of the rich, the people who make the most and exploit their workers by paying them the minimum wage of $200 a month, fail to pay taxes and complain about the lack of government services. Although he probably had a specific and limited group in mind when he started leading chants against the super rich, his phrases came to represent a general disdain for the not-poor in the public imagination. Non-poor Ecuadorians, perpetually worried about the right to private property, saw Correa’s government as one that is hostile to their interests and to the economic well being of the country.

Despite deeply polarizing the population, Correa ironically brought a sense of stability to the country. After the most recent rounds of elections, Correa’s opponents began to accept the fact that he was going to govern for the next four years and possibly longer (the constitution mandates a maximum of two consecutive terms). Furthermore, because many investors started pulling out of Ecuador after Correa was elected, the global economic crisis did not have the grave impact it had elsewhere (although truth be told, it’s difficult to tell because Correa installed his own people in the Central Bank and mandated a change in the way GDP growth is calculated). This stability brought a sense of normalcy that has been missing in the country for the past two years. The sky didn’t fall, his popularity remained strong, and people went about their lives no longer anxious to overthrow the President. It’s also worth pointing out that in the 4 years he’s been on the political scene no real opposition has surfaced: the country’s richest man, Alvaro Noboa, has put his name forward a few times but few self-respecting individuals outside his regional support base would vote for him. The mayor of Guayaquil, Jamie Nebot, is one of Correa’s main detractors but refuses to enter national politics and is more intent on shoring up his support in the country’s coastal region.

The first hint of instability came when Correa began questioning the loyalty of his congressmen and women, but most people assumed that we’d go to elections again, Correa would win both the presidency and probably a slighly smaller majority in congress. Then shit hit the fan. As soon as the police announced their strike, Correa insisted on confronting the rebellion’s leaders facde to face. He showed up in person with a cane (he recently had a knee operation), and yelled, “if you want to kill the President, here he is, come kill him!” Rather than take up his offer of dialogue or regicide, the police launched tear gas at him and in the scruffle he hurt his leg. Correa was rushed to the ‘police hospital’ (why they took him there is beyond me) where he now claims to be held captive. He is refusing to negotiate with the police, stating only that “I’ll leave here as the President or as a cadaver”. As I mentioned before, he really doesn’t like to compromise.

In the meantime a group of policemen stormed and took over congress. When congressmen arrived to debate and repeal the bill that caused the consternation, the policemen wouldn’t let them in (Only in Ecuador!). In the meantime schools were cancelled and battles raged at the media outlets. Some outlets claimed to be overrun by police officers trying to prevent them from broadcasting (various journalists claimed to have been beaten by the police for filming their actions), whereas others were taken over by citizens with unclear motivations. Everyone waited for word from the armed forces: in the past, the military has traditionally been the organization that decides the fate of Presidents under-seige. So far, the military hierarchy is supporting the democratically elected government, despite many of soldiers sympathizing with the police officers’ cause.

In speaking with my friends and family over the phone and engaging in lively debates over Facebook and Twitter, most Ecuadorians agree that democracy should be restored, although many are happy to see Correa get his comeuppance. Even Correa’s main opponent, Jaime Neboa, stated that Correa should continue to rule but that he should ‘learn his lesson for causing this problem.’ There are many short-sighted people who feel the military should step in and depose Correa. These people unfortunately fail to see that the forces that are trying to take down the current government will do the same with the next and the next until Ecuador decides that democracy is the only means through which issues will be resolved.

My friend Rachel Carrell wrote an amazing PhD thesis at Oxford which I had the pleasure of proof-reading a number of years ago. Rachel argued that Ecuador has too many ‘veto holders’ who can stop any and all reform by paralyzing movement and commerce and forcing their will on the government and the people. Correa gave the impression that this era was over, such was the force of his personality and the strength of his hegemonic dominance of the Ecuadorian electorate. For the first time in four years a group powerful enough to disrupt the illusion of order has evoked its veto with unknown consequences. The one thing I can say for sure is that Correa wont back down: if anything Correa is a man of principle whose public persona is built on the idea that he never backs down, be his opponent business interests, foreign interests, leftist interests or anyone else for that matter. As I write this large crowds have gathered outside the Presidential palace to demand his release and a number of citizens are attempting to breach the barrier imposed by the police at the hospital where Correa is currently being held. Early reports suggest that at least one person has been killed.

I’ll try to update this spot with more brief messages as events unfold. In the meantime let’s hope that peace and order return to the streets of Ecuador.